It’s been a wild couple weeks in the NBA. The Eastern Conference has been diagnosed with bipolar disorder, James Harden has been haunted by white and black shirts in his dreams, and Miles Bridges has decided Eric Collins didn’t have enough content to gas him up last year. But perhaps the top storyline, in my book, has been the blistering start from the 2021 NBA draft class. Long thought of as an uber-talented, deep, and versatile class, the 2021 draft might just surpass those expectations. I need more than one hand to count the rookies that are already making major contributions on legitimately competitive teams. That’s nuts.
I could pick 10-15 guys from this class and give you tangible reasons why they’ll make an all-star game in their career. I think you could even argue that all top five picks will make an All-Nba team at one point in their careers. All that said, I’ve always been a quick hitter, and for the sake of this argument, I’m going to break down the five most impressive rookies to date, as I’ve seen it. Heck, I may even throw in some honorable mentions for you hungry hippos. Let’s get into it.
Scottie Barnes - Toronto Raptors
Scottie Barnes, Scottie Barnes, Scottie Barnes. I’ve always liked Barnes, but I’ve never been higher on the ultra-energetic kid. Most draft experts expected Scottie to morph into a more modern version of Draymond Green — a long, heady, versatile defender who can connect the dots on offense with high energy plays and short-roll/transition playmaking. I still see the defensive similarities here, but Scottie’s in a whole different realm offensively, which has allowed him to legitimately look like the Raptors’ best player on some nights, like their most recent win over the Pacers. In fact, I would liken Scottie more to Bam Adebayo than Draymond on the offensive end of the floor. Much like Bam, Scottie is a physical menace who can do almost everything inside the arc offensively. Scottie’s a fantastic pick and roll partner. He can hurt you vertically with his other-worldly length, but also has quite a bit of finesse, and has showcased a knack for touch shots inside 10 feet. Much like Bam and Draymond, he’s relentlessly correct in his decision making, and skillfully takes advantage of two-on-one and three-on-two situations.
What has surprised me most is his shot profile. Scottie has taken 36% of his shots from outside 10 feet this year. He’s shooting 39% on pull up jumpers and the experimentation bodes very well for the long term growth of his game. I don’t think anyone could’ve forecasted 18 points per game on 55% shooting from the field for Scottie in his first seven career games as a pro. Combine this with his famous defensive intensity and immensely valuable ability to guard positions one through five, and we’re looking at a real superstar being groomed in Toronto right now. I couldn’t be more impressed.
2. Evan Mobley - Cleveland Cavaliers
It’s possible I’m being disrespectful here with Mobley as the second name on this list. So be it, Scottie’s got me charmed. That said, Mobleys hot on his tail. Over his first seven games, the USC product has averaged 13.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.4 blocks a game, all while shooting the ball at 2% above the league average true shooting percentage. What sticks out is the defense. Mobley can already switch onto elite NBA guards, such as Trae Young, and give up no advantage. He’s so nimble on his feet, but he’s also comfortable playing from behind and daring smaller ball handlers to go up with it while he’s on their back. The Cavaliers can deploy Mobley in any pick and roll coverage and feel comfortable with the result. For a 20-year-old kid, that’s borderline unheard of.
The oft-criticized decision to pair him with Jarrett Allen has proved worrisome. Although he struggles to anchor a defense as a center right now (the Cavaliers defense ranks in the last percentile in minutes with Mobley at center), the Cavaliers score at league best rate (129.3 points per 100 possessions) with him at the five. His perimeter skills and ability to space the floor vertically for sharpshooters Darius Garland and Collin Sexton has proved to be invaluable on the offensive end of the floor. Although mainly a threat at the rim, Mobley hasn’t been shy to huck up some jumpers and experiment with advanced post moves. He’s thrown himself into contact more than he did at USC, and the shades of a young Anthony Davis are really starting to pop. I don’t think anyone would be surprised if Mobley ends up as the Rookie of the Year.
3. Chris Duarte
Man, I love Chris Duarte. Although surprising to most, I’m unfazed with the fact that Duarte is currently playing 36 minutes per game on a team vying for legitimate playoff contention. In fact, I’m not even surprised that the Pacers have been a whopping 10.5 points better when Duarte is on the court. He just flows, man. He’s got an effortless stroke, and has cashed in on 39% of his 6.6 three point attempts per game, and 90.9% of his free throw attempts. Although not needed as a high level playmaker, Duarte has shown promise in flashes as a secondary ball handler. His assist percentage sits in the 54th percentile league wide, which I consider very promising for a freshman wing. Duarte has shot 37% on his 6.6 pull up jumpers a game, and he’s been scorching from deep, particularly above the break, where he’s shooting 42%. To go along with all this, opponents have shot 5.2% worse from the field with Duarte as their primary defender. He’s just a menace.
To take the next step, Duarte will need to improve as a pick and roll ball handler, particularly in an offense centered around Domantas Sabonis. If he can do that, we’re looking at a player with a floor as a high-end starter. That’s a damn high floor for a player picked 13th overall in the draft. It speaks to both the quality of this draft and the quality of Duarte's game. Well rounded and aggressive, there's not a lot to nitpick through seven games of the Chris Duarte experience.
4. Davion Mitchell
Glancing at the numbers, Davion shouldn’t be on this list. He’s averaging under eight points per contest while shooting an abysmal 35% from the field and a tick over 21% from deep. He gets to the line once every other game and he only hits half of those attempts. But when you watch him, it just makes sense. Mitchell profiles as a top-10 perimeter defender in the NBA. Like, right now. Like, six games into his pro career. Opponents have been laughably troubled by Mitchells quick feet and relentless approach, and he’s forced his match-ups to shoot 10.4% worse from the field when he’s smothering them. Still not impressed? He’s also stolen the ball 1.6 times per 36 minutes, all while facing some of the league's best guards in Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic, Damion Lillard, Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker, and Chris Paul. Not too shabby.
Offensively is where he’s struggled, but color me unconcerned. Micthell is already grading as a league average pick and roll ball handler. Why is that impressive? Oh right, he’s shooting THIRTY FIVE PERCENT from the field. For those that don’t know, those stats typically have a positive correlation, and when Mitchell starts making the shots we’re accustomed to him making, he should grade out as a reliable pick and roll ball handler, which is very impressive for a first year player. I love his pace as he bobs and weaves through the lane after receiving a pick. He’s careful with the ball and has posted a Chris Paul-esque 5:1 assist to turnover ratio thus far. He’s got a nifty floater, a nasty first step, and real creation skills. His dribble moves are compact and calculated, and he prides himself on not being a ball stopper. The numbers don’t show it yet, but the smart money should be on Davion to morph himself into a quality NBA player.
5. Josh Giddey
Josh Giddey confuses the hell out of me. He’s got a non-chalantness to his game that almost comes off as arrogant to the spectator. He’s loose with the ball and rarely looks like he’s playing at full speed. In reality, the more I watch him the more I notice the calculated essence of his game.
Giddey is fully aware of his athletic limitations and he lulls defenders to sleep with unconventional zigs and zags out of the pick and roll, spontaneous off-hand passes, and nifty changes of pace. Giddey does everything out there, and he’s 0.3 assists a game from averaging a triple double per 100 possessions. He’s shot the ball on a higher volume than I expected from deep, chucking up 3.2 attempts per 36 minutes and converting a third of them. Defensively, he’s got nice instincts and some size but he’s stiff and doesn’t necessarily play in an environment conducive to giving effort on that side of the floor.
I’m not sold on the Australian. I think his lack of explosion, combined with a shaky perimeter jumper, makes it pretty hard for me to see a scoring ceiling that would thrust him into the conversation of the top guards in the league. But it’s not everyday rookies average 10-5-5 on 45% shooting from the field in their first couple weeks of NBA basketball. Giddey should see his role expand as the season goes on and he gets more comfortable running the pick and roll. I couldn’t be more intrigued to observe his development...and his TikToks.
Honorable Mentions: Franz Wagner, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Herb Jones.
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